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Analyse aandeel TNT Express

TNT ziet enkele operationele risico'sop zich afkomen nu de onderneming reorganiseert en zich aanpast aan de mislukte overname door UPS. (Engelstalig rapport)

Matthew Young, CFA 21 november, 2014 | 15:55

INVESTMENT THESIS

TNT Express is the fourth-largest international express-parcel provider after DHL, FedEx, and UPS. It leads the intra-Europe express market and has built ground delivery footprints in other regions, including Australia. In May 2011, TNT Express finalized its spin-off from PostNL, the largest postal operator in the Netherlands. Further, in early 2012, UPS struck a deal to acquire TNT Express, but European regulatory authorities blocked the transaction in early 2013. Overall, the firm is re-establishing itself as an independent entity following the failed UPS deal, and it appointed a new chief executive in June 2013. In terms of performance, contract pruning and sluggish macroeconomic conditions are tempering volume and pricing trends in TNT's core European parcel delivery operations.

TNT's niche is the approximately EUR 20 billion intra-Europe business-to-business express market, where it holds the largest share at about 17%. The company has built a vast air and road network connecting about 70% of the region on a GDP basis, making it the largest network on the Continent. We think this provides some differentiation from the other three major express carriers, which focus to a much larger degree on intercontinental express shipping. TNT does participate in intercontinental shipping. In fact, China-Europe lanes have been a focus in recent years as many of the firm's existing customers have expanded into the Asia-Pacific region.

Outside its core European businesses, which represent roughly 70% of revenue, TNT had been targeting network and service expansion in China and South America (particularly Brazil). However, as part of its new restructuring initiatives following the failed UPS deal, the firm sold its domestic operations in China. Throughout 2013, it was also looking to divest its loss-making operations in Brazil, but recently decided to retain the business--essentially, management concluded that its retention value exceeds the disposal value.


WAARDERING

Economic Moat   Fair value   Stewardship Rating  
None   EUR 5,50   Standard  
Moat Trend   Uncertainty   Sector  
Stable   High  

Industrie - tran-sport en logistiek


BULLS

  • TNT's new chief executive Tex Gunning (joined mid-2013) brings a fresh perspective and is reorganizing the firm’s strategic priorities—this dynamic should uncover incremental opportunities for productivity and service improvement.

  • TNT operates the largest Pan-European express-delivery road network, providing some differentiation from its peers.

  • We expect the international express market to expand at a mid-single-digit percentage rate annually over the long run--slower in Europe, but stronger on certain intercontinental lanes and in select domestic markets.



BEARS

  • Sluggish macroeconomic growth throughout Europe is tempering volume and yield trends for TNT's core European road network.

  • Contract losses in Italy and the U.K. have been weighing on TNT's domestic-express business.

  • TNT recently decided to retain its loss-making domestic operations in Brazil, which could remain a distraction.

 

 

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Effecten genoemd in dit artikel

Naam effectPrijsChange (%)Morningstar Rating
FedEx Corp152,27 USD-2,09
United Parcel Service Inc Class B119,01 USD-1,27

Over de auteur

Matthew Young, CFA  Matt Young, CFA, is an equity analyst with Morningstar.

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