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Analyse aandeel GBL

GBL is het Berkshire Hathaway van België en heeft het vermogen, de leiding en langetermijnhorizon om te kapitaliseren op mogelijkheden die andere beleggers missen of niet kunnen pakken. (rapport Engelstalig)

Todd Wenning 05 november, 2014 | 17:32

INVESTMENT THESIS

As one of the world's largest publicly traded holding companies, GBL's investment strategy has traditionally been to make sizable investments in large European industrial firms and use its sway as a significant shareholder to improve the companies' underlying operations. Among GBL's successful investments were Belgian firms Banque Bruxelles Lambert, Petrofina, and Royale Belge--all of which were eventually acquired by European firms based outside of Belgium. Indeed, GBL benefited mightily from a reduction of European trade barriers that allowed for cross-border acquisitions.

About half of GBL's current portfolio consists of small but influential stakes in large European firms that are accounted as available-for-sale investments. GBL's largest portfolio holding is a 3.2% stake in French energy giant Total, which accounted for 25% of GBL's portfolio value as of September 2014. Other available-for-sale investments include GDF Suez (a 2.4% stake), Pernod Ricard (7.5%), and Suez Environnement (1.1%). Another 40% of GBL's portfolio consists of three large, influential investments. The most recent was a EUR 1.9 billion investment in Swiss inspection and certification company SGS S.A. that amounts to a 15% stake in the company. The second influential investment is in building materials firm Lafarge, which amounts to a 21% stake in the firm. The third is a 56% stake in industrial minerals firm Imerys. GBL has been Lafarge's main shareholder since 2006 and has held an influential stake in Imerys for more than a decade. Lafarge is currently in merger talks with Holcim. If the deal is approved by regulators, GBL would be a 10% owner of the new firm.

GBL's current portfolio remains largely consistent with its traditional euro-centric strategy, though we expect its focus to shift over the next decade to include more non-European and non-industrial firms.


VALUATION

Economic Moat   Fair value   Stewardship Rating   Conglomorate
None   EUR 88.00   Standard  
Moat Trend   Uncertainty   Sector  
Stable   Medium  

Industrie - conglomeraten


BULLS

  • GBL will continue to benefit from a recovery in the European construction markets.

  • GBL is the "Berkshire of Belgium" and has the capital resources, leadership, and long-term focus to capitalize on opportunities that other investors either miss or can't take.

  • GBL has a distinguished dividend track record has increased its payout by over 7% each year, on average, over the last 10 years.

 

BEARS

  • GBL's best days are behind it, as evidenced by poor relative performance over the last five to seven years.

  • Minority shareholders have little influence in this tightly controlled holding company and GBL primarily serves the interests of the Frère and Desmarais families.

  • Investors looking to gain exposure to the European markets would be better served investing in a broad European index fund.

 

 

 

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Effecten genoemd in dit artikel

Naam effectPrijsChange (%)Morningstar Rating
Groupe Bruxelles Lambert SA91,78 EUR-0,95

Over de auteur

Todd Wenning

Todd Wenning  is an equities analyst with Morningstar.

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