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Analyse aandeel Google

Morningstar gaat er van uit dat Google de dominante zoekmachine op pc's, laptops, smartphones en tablets blijft (Engelstalig rapport)

Rick Summer, CFA, CPA 02 januari, 2014 | 9:43

INVESTMENT THESIS

With a dominant internet search product as its foundation, Google has built an impressive portfolio that individuals use frequently, beyond search. These new products allow advertisers to reach out to potential customers multiple times, in multiple ways.

As consumers use multiple devices in a post-PC world, these changing behaviors shine a light on other successful products Google has built in order to keep a hold on users and provide a greater benefit to advertisers. Google's mobile operating system and browser help to unify users' experience as they move from one device to another. The firm's success in products such as Gmail, the Chrome browser, and Google Maps provides a cohesive experience for users and helps Google show more relevant ads.

Our general thesis for the online media sector assumes that digital ad spending will continue to consolidate around companies with unique assets and reach, such as Google and Facebook. A strong secular growth trend for online advertising is core to our thesis. The market for Internet search advertising is still growing in the double digits, while display advertising is growing thanks to newer innovations tying display ads to specific actions, including clicks, leads, and customers. Faster-growing geographies such as Asia are propping up overall growth rates even as pockets of economic weakness hit various regions.

As the pre-eminent leader in search, Google maintains more than 60% of worldwide market share; no other competitor has even 10%. We believe the company's early technical advantages attracted users who now use it habitually, creating a switching cost based on familiarity with the engine. Although we expect small movements in market share, we believe Google's dominance will persist and not lose more than 3-5 points of share.

Investors should be aware that new businesses and products are unlikely to be as profitable as the desktop search market. As Google will be forced to share payments with other players in the value chain, such as content owners, application developers, and handset makers, profit growth may ultimately lag revenue growth over the long run.

VALUATION

Economic Moat   Fair value   Stewardship Rating   Google
Wide   USD 520.00   Standard  
Moat Trend   Uncertainty   Sector  
Stable   High  

Technology - online media

 

BULLS

  • There is still a large gap between time spent online and dollars allocated to Internet advertising spending. As branding advertising becomes more effective, we expect greater increases in online ad spending.

  • Google's meteoric rise in smartphone market share through the Android platform should help to extend its competitive advantages into the mobile world.

  • Google's water faucet of cash generation from search and long-term focus on new products provide new and significant opportunities for growth.

 

 

BEARS

  • Google is highly leveraged to its market share in Internet search, as more than 80% of net revenue is generated by this activity.

  • Though the company has invested aggressively in new products and acquisitions, it is challenging to prove that the efforts are generating excess returns on capital.

  • Facebook's Graph Search threatens to disrupt some of the heretofore dominant players on the Web, including Google.

 

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Effecten genoemd in dit artikel

Naam effectPrijsChange (%)Morningstar Rating
Apple Inc269,28 USD0,88
Google Inc Class A1.345,26 USD0,17
Microsoft Corp151,59 USD-0,11
Yahoo! Inc  

Over de auteur

Rick Summer, CFA, CPA  Rick Summer, CFA, CPA, is a senior stock analyst with Morningstar.

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