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Analyse aandeel Novartis

Novartis staat goed voorgesorteerd voor een stabiele groei op lange termijn. (Engelstalig rapport)

Damien Conover, CFA 24 april, 2014 | 0:14

INVESTMENT THESIS
In an industry plagued by stagnant growth, Novartis is well-positioned with diversified operating platforms and an industry-leading number of new potential blockbuster drugs. Strong intellectual property supporting multibillion-dollar products, combined with an abundance of late-pipeline products, creates a wide economic moat. While the late 2012 patent loss on Diovan and manufacturing problems in the consumer division will weigh on near-term growth, the company's strong strategic position should lead to steady long-term growth.

Novartis derives its strength from a diversified operating platform that includes branded pharmaceuticals, generics, eye-care products, and consumer products. Although the majority of its' competitors focus solely on the high-margin branded pharmaceutical segment, Novartis runs several complementary operations that reduce overall volatility and create cross-segment synergies. For example, not only does its generic business, Sandoz, serve to grab a portion of the billions of dollars in competitive branded products losing patent protection during the next 10 years, but it also extends the life cycle of in-house products as patents expire. Further, the acquisition of Alcon in 2011 greatly boosts Novartis' consumer and drug segments with additional sales from the fast-growing eye-care business.

The pharmaceutical segment is poised for long-term growth driven by new pipeline products and existing drugs. Novartis differentiates itself because of its sheer number of blockbusters, including Gilenya for multiple sclerosis, and Afinitor and Tasigna for cancer. Also, the company has generated a superior late-stage pipeline and should file several new products in 2014 in the United States and Europe. Despite the late 2012 Diovan patent loss and the eventual 2015 patent loss on Gleevec, the combination of a strong pipeline of new products and a diverse, well-positioned operating platform should translate into reliable growth over the long term.


VALUATION

Economic Moat   Fair value   Stewardship Rating   Medicijnen
Wide   CHF 73.00   Standard  
Moat Trend   Uncertainty   Sector  
Stable   Low   

gezondheidszorg - medicijnfabrikanten


BULLS

  • Novartis' industry-leading late-stage pipeline should propel long-term growth. The company should launch several new chemical entities during the next few years in critical therapeutic areas such as respiratory and oncology.

  • Novartis operates across multiple segments, and this provides greater stability in earnings compared with firms that are focused on only one business.

  • With a leading number of pipeline drugs designated as breakthrough therapies, Novartis' research and development in unmet medical needs should yield several new drugs with strong pricing power.

 

BEARS

  • In late 2012, the company's leading drug Diovan lost patent protection, creating a massive gap in sales as the drug represents close to 10% of Novartis' total sales.

  • Increased competition could materially slow the growth rates of two of Novartis' leading drugs, Lucentis and Gilenya.

  • The major acquisitions during the past couple of years continue to face integration risks as they are folded into Novartis.

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Effecten genoemd in dit artikel

Naam effectPrijsChange (%)Morningstar Rating
Novartis AG ADR86,22 USD-0,77
Pfizer Ltd INR3.221,95 INR0,00
Roche Holding AG289,45 CHF0,03

Over de auteur

Damien Conover, CFA  Damien Conover, CFA, is an associate director for Morningstar.

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