Analyse aandeel Pfizer

Pfizer heeft een leidend marktaandeel in opkomende landen. De snelle groei die in deze landen wordt voorzien geeft de farmaceut een sterke de wind in de rug. (Engelstalig rapport)

Damien Conover, CFA 30 september, 2013 | 15:26

INVESTMENT THESIS

Pfizer's foundation remains solid, based on strong cash flows generated from a basket of diverse drugs. The company's large size confers significant competitive advantages in developing new drugs. This unmatched heft, combined with a broad portfolio of patent-protected drugs, has helped Pfizer build a wide economic moat around its business.

Pfizer's size establishes the largest economy of scale in the pharmaceutical industry. In a business where drug development needs a lot of shots on goal to be successful, Pfizer has the financial resources and the established research power to support the development of more new drugs. Also, after many years of struggling to bring out important new drugs, Pfizer is now launching several potential blockbusters in cancer, heart disease, and immunology.

Pfizer's vast financial resources support a leading sales force. Pfizer's commitment to postapproval studies provides its salespeople with an armamentarium of data for their marketing campaigns. Further, Pfizer's leading sales forces in emerging countries position the company to benefit from the dramatically increasing wealth in nations such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, and Turkey.

While entrenched as an industry leader, Pfizer faces challenges in the near term. In particular, the loss of Lipitor exclusivity that started in late 2011 will continue to weigh on the growth of the company. Additionally, in 2014, Pfizer loses patent protection on blockbuster Celebrex for arthritis.

However, we believe Pfizer's operations can withstand the blitz of new generic competition, and the 2009 acquisition of Wyeth helps insulate Pfizer from any one particular patent loss. Also, following the merger, Pfizer has a much stronger position in the biologic industry with meningitis vaccine Prevnar and rheumatoid arthritis drug Enbrel. Biologics tend to be more resistant to generic competition due to the complexity in the structure of the drugs.

VALUATION

Economic Moat   Fair value   Stewardship Rating   Medicijnen
Wide   USD 30.00   Standard  
Moat Trend   Uncertainty   Sector  
Stable   Low  

gezondheidszorg - medicijnfabrikanten


BULLS

  • Pfizer's pipeline is developing into one of the best in the industry. Pfizer's Xeljanz is a potential game-changer in rheumatoid arthritis. In addition, Pfizer's Eliquis should develop into a major blockbuster in atrial fibrillation.

  • The stock boasts a dividend yield of close to 4% and we expect the dividend payout ratio will increase during the next few years.

  • The internal restructuring of innovative divisions and mature business lines could lead to more clarity on the value of Pfizer's research and development power.


BEARS

  • Pfizer's aggressive cost-cutting in research and development could hurt the long-term prospects of the firm as less capital is available to develop the next generation of drugs.

  • Pfizer is facing generic competition for several of its products with more than $1 billion in annual sales. Failure to receive FDA approval for its drugs in late-stage development could exacerbate its revenue decline.

  • Austerity measures in Europe are likely to put pricing pressure on an important market for Pfizer.


Lees ook deze aandelenanalyses van sectorgenoten
Johnson & Johnson

Roche

Novartis

UCB

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Effecten genoemd in dit artikel

Naam effectPrijsChange (%)Morningstar Rating
Johnson & Johnson131,65 USD1,18
Novartis AG86,26 CHF0,44
Pfizer Inc36,69 USD0,49
Roche Holding AG282,80 CHF0,64
UCB SA66,02 EUR1,85

Over de auteur

Damien Conover, CFA  Damien Conover, CFA, is an associate director for Morningstar.