Analyse aandeel ASML

ASMl is een marktleider en innovator in fotolithografie. De onderneming heeft zich de laatste jaren gericht op operationele efficiëntie om zo de winstgevendheid gedurende economische cycli te verbeteren. (rapport Engelstalig)

Peter Wahlstrom, CFA 21 april, 2014 | 13:10

INVESTMENT THESIS

ASM Lithography is the top provider of photolithography tools, which are used in the most critical semiconductor fabrication process. Photolithography is the process in which a light source is used to expose circuit patterns from a photomask onto a semiconductor wafer. Technological advances here are the major drivers behind the march toward smaller circuits in chip devices.

Lithography tools, which have price tags of $20 million to $30 million, account for a major portion of chipmakers' capital spending. ASML holds the leading position in the lithography market, according to research firm Gartner, but faces competition from Nikon and Canon. With roughly 30 years of experience, ASML has developed extensive technical expertise in a highly complex field. ASML has strengthened its competitive position in recent years, as its technology lead in state-of-the-art immersion lithography tools has provided a technological differentiator for the firm and boosted its profitability profile.

To maintain its strong technology position, ASML has been developing next-generation extreme ultra-violet lithography tools, as well as future tools for creating circuits on 450-millimeter diameter semiconductor wafers, versus today's 300-millimeter wafers. The firm created a customer co-investment program, in which three major customers (Intel, Samsung, and Taiwan Semiconductor) have taken minority equity stakes in ASML and committed to help fund a portion of research-and-development over five years. In 2013, ASML acquired its key lithography light source supplier Cymer to enhance its EUV development efforts. Cymer has made progress on developing EUV light sources, while ASML has done significant work on EUV lithography tools. The integration of the two firms will allow them to accelerate and reduce the risk of commercializing EUV systems.

Over time, ASML should benefit from technology tailwinds. Lithography tools have become much more critical to enabling chipmakers to advance their manufacturing technologies over time, which will drive increasing lithography investments by customers and should position ASML to outgrow the overall chip equipment industry in the long run.


VALUATION

Economic Moat   Fair value   Stewardship Rating   Halfgeleiders
Narrow   EUR 63,00   Standard  
Moat Trend   Uncertainty   Sector  
Positive   Medium  

Technologie - halfgeleiders


BULLS

  • ASML is a market leader and innovator in photolithography, an integral part of chip manufacturing.

  • The extensive technical expertise needed to develop lithography tools, which are highly complex and play a critical role in semiconductor manufacturing, serves as a barrier to entry.

  • ASML has focused on operational efficiency in recent years to improve profitability throughout industry cycles.

 

 

BEARS

  • ASML depends on a handful of powerful customers and will sell only several hundred systems each year.

  • Dependence on a limited number of suppliers for key components exposes ASML to pricing power and possible disruptions to its supply chain.

  • The firm depends on the deeply cyclical semiconductor industry for demand.

 

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Effecten genoemd in dit artikel

Naam effectPrijsChange (%)Morningstar Rating
ASM International NV84,70 EUR1,56
ASML Holding NV226,05 EUR-0,86
Intel Corp50,61 USD-1,86

Over de auteur

Peter Wahlstrom, CFA  Peter Wahlstrom, CFA, is an associate director with Morningstar.