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Analyse aandeel Apple

De kracht van Apple zit hem in zijn ervaring en expertise bij het integreren van hardware, software, diensten en apps van derden in gebruiksvriendelijke apparaten. (Engelstalig rapport)

Brian Colello, CPA 28 januari, 2014 | 13:38

INVESTMENT THESIS

We believe Apple's strength lies in its experience and expertise in integrating hardware, software, services, and third-party applications into differentiated devices that allow Apple to capture a premium on hardware sales. Although Apple has a sterling brand, robust product pipeline, and ample opportunity to gain share in its various end markets, short product life cycles and intense competition will prevent the firm from resting on its laurels or carving out a wide economic moat, in our opinion.

We believe Apple has developed a narrow economic moat, thanks to switching costs related to a variety of attributes around the iOS platform that may make current iOS users more reluctant to stray outside the Apple ecosystem for future purchases. However, much of Apple's exponential growth in recent years has stemmed not from the firm's moat, but from the achievement of building the first truly revolutionary smartphone, the iPhone, that integrated hardware and software, as well as a robust apps store and ecosystem that attracted new users to platform. Apple's first-mover advantage may be diminishing, and "easy growth" coming from early smartphone adopters may be winding down as the smartphone market moves up the adoption curve and competition ramps up from Samsung and others. Yet we still foresee iPhone growth, coming from both attracting new customers to iOS (mostly in emerging markets, although we still see U.S. growth as well) and retaining Apple's existing premium iPhone customers, where we think the company's moat will play an increasingly important role. A partnership with China Mobile, the world’s largest wireless carrier, should also give iPhone growth a shot in the arm.

Ultimately, we think future smartphone and tablet competition will stem from software and services, as hardware is already approaching commoditization. We view Apple as well positioned to develop and expand enough services to enhance the user experience, in order to build switching costs that will help the firm retain customers and generate significant repeat purchases will be critical for future iPhone growth in the years ahead.

 

VALUATION

Economic Moat   Fair value   Stewardship Rating   Apple
Narrow   USD 600.00   Standard  
Moat Trend   Uncertainty   Sector  
Positive   High  

Technology - Computer hardware

 

BULLS

  • Gartner expects the smartphone market to more than double from 2012 to 2015, providing Apple with avenues for iPhone growth.

  • Apple appears poised to generate strong revenue growth from the iPad in the years ahead as tablets cannibalize PCs.

  • For each iOS device purchased, customers may be less likely to switch to another provider and more likely to buy repeat Apple products, which we view as a good sign for long-term iPhone, iPad, and Mac sales, as well as an ability to drive revenue from new devices like a revised Apple TV or iWatch.

 

 


BEARS

  • Apple’s recent decisions to maintain a premium pricing strategy may help fend off gross margin compression but may also limit unit sales and market share as the low end of the smartphone space will likely grow faster than the premium market.

  • Whereas Apple focuses on a handful of key products, Samsung has emerged as a strong rival by offering highly competitive devices of all sizes and prices at all times of the year.

  • Apple may have lost much of its vision and creativity with the passing of cofounder Steve Jobs in October 2011.

 


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Effecten genoemd in dit artikel

Naam effectPrijsChange (%)Morningstar Rating
Amazon.com Inc1.761,81 USD-0,22
Apple Inc243,14 USD1,33
Google Inc Class A1.257,63 USD1,32
Microsoft Corp137,27 USD0,66

Over de auteur

Brian Colello, CPA  Brian Colello, CPA is a senior stock analyst with Morningstar.

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