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Analyse aandeel ExxonMobil

Exxon's superieure kapitaalallocatie en operationele prestatie zou moeten leiden tot een hoog rendement op kapitaal (Engelstalig rapport)

Allen Good 21 maart, 2014 | 13:02

INVESTMENT THESIS
ExxonMobil sets itself apart from the other majors as a superior capital allocator and operator and has historically consistently delivered higher returns on capital relative to peers. However, delivering returns on par with historical levels could be more difficult as it faces the ongoing challenge of reserve replacement. With a majority of the world's remaining resources in government hands, the firm's opportunities to expand its large production base are limited.

While we believe Exxon has an advantage in the current environment, that does not necessarily mean production and reserve gains will come easily or cheaply. Exxon's need for projects of a certain size in order to contribute meaningfully to its production profile and justify investment leaves it with a diminishing set of opportunities. Also, investing exclusively in large projects exposes it to a variety of risks including overinvestment risk, execution risk, and budgetary risk.

Greater competition is becoming an issue as more operators vie to partner in large projects with national oil companies. To gain access, Exxon must not only demonstrate its value but may also have to agree to terms that are not as advantageous as in the past. More often, management is faced with a tough decision: Take less favorable terms on more projects, or focus on projects where its expertise is highly valued. A good example of the latter case is Exxon's recent deal with Rosneft to explore for oil in the Russian Arctic. If Exxon is able to exploit similar opportunities where it can add oil reserves with attractive terms thanks to its value proposition, then it can probably continue to deliver superior returns.

One way Exxon is tackling its growth/reserve replacement issues is by investing in projects like oil sands and LNG that produce at plateau production levels for longer than traditional projects and reduce its overall decline rates. Also, relatively little reinvestment is required after the large initial up-front capital, resulting in significant free cash flow generation after startup. Production for these projects will constitute more than half the 1 mmboe/d of new production capacity Exxon plans to add by 2017.


VALUATION

Economic Moat   Fair value   Stewardship Rating   Exxon truck
Wide   USD 109.00   Exemplary  
Moat Trend   Uncertainty   Sector  
Negative   Low  

Energie - olie en gas geïntegreerd


BULLS

  • Exxon's superior capital allocation and operational performance should continue to deliver high returns on capital.

  • NOCs do not have the expertise to effectively explore for and produce oil and gas in their countries and will need to partner with private firms. Exxon is one the most attractive options as its recent deal with Rosneft demonstrates.

  • With coordination between upstream and downstream operations, as well as integrated refining and chemical facilities, Exxon actually achieves a high level of integration that creates value as opposed to simply owning the assets like peers.


BEARS

  • As nations become more protective of their natural resources, the company will find it increasingly difficult to increase production and book reserves.

  • Record-high commodity prices helped produce record profits and free cash flow in recent years. Higher levels of investment place free cash flow and cash shareholder returns at risk if commodity prices slip. Low natural gas prices are weighing on profitability currently.

  • Exxon is very discriminating when evaluating investment opportunities. It is unlikely to sign less favorable contracts, which could slow growth.

 

 

Lees ook deze aandelenanalyse van sectorgenoten

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Effecten genoemd in dit artikel

Naam effectPrijsChange (%)Morningstar Rating
Exxon Mobil Corporation70,34 USD-0,61
Royal Dutch Shell PLC Class A EUR27,20 EUR-0,07

Over de auteur

Allen Good  Allen Good is a senior stock analyst covering the oil and gas industries.

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