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Analyse aandeel ExxonMobil

Exxon's superieure kapitaalallocatie en operationele prestatie zou moeten leiden tot een hoog rendement op kapitaal (Engelstalig rapport)

Allen Good 21 maart, 2014 | 13:02

INVESTMENT THESIS
ExxonMobil sets itself apart from the other majors as a superior capital allocator and operator and has historically consistently delivered higher returns on capital relative to peers. However, delivering returns on par with historical levels could be more difficult as it faces the ongoing challenge of reserve replacement. With a majority of the world's remaining resources in government hands, the firm's opportunities to expand its large production base are limited.

While we believe Exxon has an advantage in the current environment, that does not necessarily mean production and reserve gains will come easily or cheaply. Exxon's need for projects of a certain size in order to contribute meaningfully to its production profile and justify investment leaves it with a diminishing set of opportunities. Also, investing exclusively in large projects exposes it to a variety of risks including overinvestment risk, execution risk, and budgetary risk.

Greater competition is becoming an issue as more operators vie to partner in large projects with national oil companies. To gain access, Exxon must not only demonstrate its value but may also have to agree to terms that are not as advantageous as in the past. More often, management is faced with a tough decision: Take less favorable terms on more projects, or focus on projects where its expertise is highly valued. A good example of the latter case is Exxon's recent deal with Rosneft to explore for oil in the Russian Arctic. If Exxon is able to exploit similar opportunities where it can add oil reserves with attractive terms thanks to its value proposition, then it can probably continue to deliver superior returns.

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Effecten genoemd in dit artikel

Naam effectPrijsChange (%)Morningstar Rating
Exxon Mobil Corporation43,13 USD-1,64
Royal Dutch Shell PLC Class A EUR17,44 EUR1,12

Over de auteur

Allen Good  Allen Good is a senior stock analyst covering the oil and gas industries.

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