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Analyse aandeel Coca-Cola

Ofschoon de consumptie van koolzuurhoudende dranken in Noord-Amerika afneemt heeft Coca-Cola nog voldoende groeimogelijkheden in de rest van de wereld. (Engelstalig rapport)

Adam Fleck, CFA 21 oktober, 2014 | 11:01

INVESTMENT THESIS

We believe Coca-Cola’s brand-driven intangible assets and strong cost advantages as the largest beverage company in the world support its wide economic moat and long-term growth trajectory. The company has outlined ambitious targets in its 2020 vision, including growing volume at a 3% to 4% clip, revenue gains in the midsingle digits, and earnings before tax expansion of 6% to 8%. Emerging- and developing-market gains drive the bulk of the top-line performance; while declining consumption of carbonated beverages in North America is a near-term headwind for Coke, we believe international markets will provide plenty of growth opportunities in the long term given lower per capita consumption levels. In addition, Coke’s dominant market position in many regions should support continued strong pricing actions.

Coke’s noncarbonated beverage portfolio also provides a key growth avenue. Volume from these products has climbed to about 26% of the company’s total from 20% in 2007, and we expect continued positive gains as consumers shift their preference toward juices and other still beverages. Although PepsiCo holds the leading domestic market share with brands like Gatorade and Tropicana, Coke has carved its own niches in both the U.S. and internationally with products such as Simply Orange juice, Vitaminwater, and Minute Maid Pulpy (Coke’s first billion-dollar brand to emerge from China). As these brands gain traction, we forecast price increases and improved profitability.

In the near term, Coke plans to shed its North American distribution assets. The firm had purchased these businesses in 2010 as part of an acquisition of its U.S. bottlers, in an effort to streamline operations and develop nimbler product differentiation strategies. While we believe the company has enjoyed synergies from this purchase, we anticipate improved profitability and returns on invested capital after the divestitures given the low-margin, asset-intensive nature of bottling operations. That said, we believe Coke’s ability to market new products, increase prices, and support its overall brands will ultimately drive returns on invested capital north of 20% over the next several years.

VALUATION

Economic Moat   Fair value   Stewardship Rating   Cocacola 
Wide   USD 42.00   Exemplary  
Moat Trend   Uncertainty   Sector  
Stable   Low  

def. consum. goed.
niet-alcoholische dranken

 


BULLS

  • Coca-Cola is the world’s leading beverage manufacturer and typically enjoys a price premium in most markets.

  • Coke and partner Keurig Green Mountain are aiming to disrupt the beverage market with at-home, single-serve cold beverage options, with plans to roll out products in 2015.

  • Coke has ample runway for growth in emerging markets, where per capita consumption is relatively low.

 

BEARS

  • Despite the popularity of Coke's flagship brand, cola consumption--both regular and diet--has declined recently in the U.S. and other developed markets.

  • Despite Coca-Cola's marketing efforts and productivity initiatives, earnings growth has proven minimal over the past several quarters, and is expected to remain muted through 2015.

  • Coke's revenue base is relatively undiversified compared with PepsiCo's; Pepsi's snack business has proved quite resilient during economic downturns.

 

 

 

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Effecten genoemd in dit artikel

Naam effectPrijsChange (%)Morningstar Rating
Coca-Cola Co53,22 USD0,26
PepsiCo Inc133,74 USD-0,62

Over de auteur

Adam Fleck, CFA  Adam Fleck is an associate director of research with Morningstar.

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