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Analyse aandeel Roche

Samenwerking tussen zijn diagnostische en geneesmiddelendivisie geeft Roche een unieke plek in de ontwikkeling van gepersonificeerde medicijnen. (Engelstalig rapport)

Karen Andersen 27 januari, 2014 | 9:19

INVESTMENT THESIS

We think Roche's drug portfolio and industry-leading diagnostics conspire to create sustainable competitive advantages. As the market leader in both biotech and diagnostics, this Swiss health-care giant is in a unique position to guide global health care into a safer, more personalized, and more cost-effective endeavor.

In Roche's pharmaceutical division, blockbuster cancer biologics acquired with Genentech--including Avastin, Rituxan, and Herceptin--continue to grow quickly as they gain market share in approved indications and garner widened approval in new indications and emerging markets. The acquisition also facilitates information sharing between Genentech and Roche researchers, boosting research and development productivity and personalized medicine offerings that take advantage of Roche's diagnostic arm. For example, BRAF inhibitor Zelboraf, approved in melanoma in 2011, is among the first drugs tested in biomarker-selected patients from the start. We expect such synergies to increase as Roche's pipeline advances.

Roche's biologics focus and innovative pipeline are key to the firm's ability to maintain its wide moat and continue to achieve growth as current blockbusters mature. Two thirds of Roche's pharmaceutical products are biologics, which provides a buffer against traditional generic competition. In addition, biosimilar competitors have witnessed delays and aren't likely to reach the market until at least 2016. With the launch of Perjeta in 2012 and Kadcyla in 2013, Roche is in a strong position to continue expanding its breast cancer franchise beyond Herceptin, regardless of biosimilars. Gazyva, now approved in the U.S. in CLL and in testing in NHL, could extend the longevity of the Rituxan franchise in a similar fashion.

Roche's diagnostics business is also strong. With a 20% share of the global in vitro diagnostics market, Roche holds the number-one rank in this industry over competitors Siemens, Abbott, and Johnson & Johnson. Pricing pressure in the competitive diabetes-care market has weighed on this division, but new instruments and immunoassays have buoyed the core professional diagnostics segment.

 

VALUATION

Economic Moat   Fair value   Stewardship Rating     Medicijnen   
Wide   CHF 247.00   Standard    
Moat Trend   Uncertainty   Sector    
Stable   Low  

gezondheidszorg - medicijnfabrikanten


BULLS

  • Roche's biologics constitute three fourths of its pharmaceutical sales, making the firm the biggest biotech in the world. Biosimilar competitors have seen development setbacks, and Roche's innovative pipeline could make these products less relevant by their launch.

  • Herceptin and Rituxan are seeing growth from expanded approvals and emerging-markets penetration, and several innovative drugs are progressing through clinical trials.

  • Collaboration between its diagnostics and drug-development groups gives Roche a unique in-house angle on personalized medicine.

 

BEARS

  • Two thirds of Roche's pharmaceutical sales stem from Genentech. Roche needs to expand prescribing labels and develop next-generation versions to support growth from novel drugs.

  • Roche relies on three cancer drugs - Rituxan, Avastin, and Herceptin - to provide 40% of revenue. If tighter budgets lead to pricing pressure on expensive cancer drugs in the U.S., Roche's profits could be vulnerable.

  • The failure of diabetes drug taspoglutide and cholesterol drug dalcetrapib in massive Phase III programs raises the question of whether Roche can successfully develop drugs outside of cancer.

 

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Effecten genoemd in dit artikel

Naam effectPrijsChange (%)Morningstar Rating
Johnson & Johnson135,94 USD0,83
Pfizer Inc37,05 USD-1,62
Roche Holding AG ADR38,17 USD-0,34
UCB SA71,06 EUR-1,31

Over de auteur

Karen Andersen  Guest Author

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