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Analyse aandeel eBay - Aanbevolen Aandeel

Met één van de meest kapitaalefficiënte business modellen in e-commerce zou de rol van eBay als een wereldwijde facilitator voor verkopen via internet moeten leiden tot buitengewone winsten. (Engelstalig rapport)

R.J. Hottovy 14 oktober, 2014 | 11:31

INVESTMENT THESIS

In September, eBay announced plans to split PayPal and the eBay Marketplaces/Enterprise units into separate publicly traded entities in the second half of 2015. Although management had been historically reluctant to separate the units, we believe now is an appropriate time to unwind the businesses due to evolving commerce and payment environments and PayPal's decreasing dependence on Marketplaces (less than 30% of payment volume today and potentially less than 15% within three years).

Our wide moat rating is unchanged, as we believe each entity possesses a strong enough stand-alone network effect to warrant a wide moat. Although we previously had concerns that a split might disrupt the combined network effect, shared services agreements should help to preserve data-sharing and customer acquisition synergies while allowing the new leadership of each unit to pursue new relationships enhancing their respective networks.

We're particularly interested in PayPal's longer-term potential. It is clear that online and mobile payments--spurred in large part by Apple Pay--will evolve in the years to come. Nevertheless, we don't view online and mobile payments as a zero-sum game, and believe PayPal can attract a wider audience as one of the most comprehensive online, mobile, and offline platforms. Braintree's mobile payment technologies, transaction protection for buyers and sellers, C2C fund transfers, small-merchant acceptance, cross-border reach, and lending services should differentiate PayPal from emergent rivals.

While the benefits of a stand-alone eBay aren't as clear, we remain upbeat about its potential as a commerce partner for merchants looking to improve omnichannel presence, same-day delivery, and mobile app functionality as well as site development and fulfillment offerings from eBay Enterprise. That said, Marketplaces is still feeling the effects of the May data breach and Google search algorithm changes. Management is attempting to counter slowing volume through increased marketing and search engine listing adjustments, but we have concerns that new user acquisition may become more costly in the periods to come, reflected in our margin assumptions.

VALUATION

Economic Moat   Fair value   Stewardship Rating   ebay
Wide   USD 63.00   Exemplary  
Moat Trend   Uncertainty   Sector  
Positive   High  

Cyclische consumptiegoederen
- retail

 

BULLS

  • With more than half of the world's Internet users coming from developing markets, eBay has sizable global growth opportunities.

  • Although management has been quick to downplay the potential of a stand-alone eBay or PayPal as acquisition candidates, we believe there are potential consolidation partners for both (Google, Alibaba, and Square, as well as a host of smaller payment/technology firms) that could strengthen their respective network effects.

  • Potential capital-allocation changes (share repurchases/dividends) could also make a stand-alone eBay an attractive investment option.


BEARS

  • eBay faces competition from Amazon and Google, which offer competing marketplaces, online payment services, comparison shopping sites, and ad search engines.

  • Even though eBay has diversified its business model, the stock remains sensitive to revenue growth expectations, particularly third-party Marketplace volume trends.

  • Management's decision to incur a tax-related charge on $9 billion of cash held overseas (freeing up $6 billion in availability) could signal the company is entering a new acquisition cycle, a strategy that brings its own integration and overpayment risk.

 

 

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Effecten genoemd in dit artikel

Naam effectPrijsChange (%)Morningstar Rating
Amazon.com Inc1.752,23 USD0,04
eBay Inc34,79 USD-0,20

Over de auteur

R.J. Hottovy  

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