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Analyse aandeel McDonald's

Door een extreem bekend en sterk merk, een samenhangend franchisesysteem, enorme schaalvoordelen en een leidende marktpositie in vrijwel elk land waar het actief is, heeft McDonald's de grootste concurrentievoorsprong in de restaurantsector. (Engelstalig rapport)

R.J. Hottovy, CFA 23 oktober, 2014 | 0:50

INVESTMENT THESIS

After an impressive eight-year run from 2004 to 2011 highlighted by average annual global comparable sales growth of 5.6% and roughly 1,500 basis points of operating margin expansion to north of 31%, McDonald's fundamentals have weakened in recent years amid increased competition, self-inflicted product pipeline and marketing issues, a tepid macro environment, and evolving consumer tastes. To confront these issues, management has unveiled a new global approach "to increase its relevance with customers and drive guest traffic," including a modernized restaurant experience and a comprehensive digital ordering, payments, and marketing strategy. McDonald's also outlined new initiatives designed to improve U.S. operations, including a more nimble organization with decentralized decisions made closer to the customer; revamped marketing emphasizing food quality; and a simplified yet customizable menu choices balancing core items and locally-relevant options.

While we view each of these initiatives as appropriate, execution and timing remain questions, and investors should not expect an overnight turnaround. This is particularly true in "priority markets" such as the U.S., Germany, and Japan, and we anticipate negative comparable sales trends to persist into 2015. We believe the company can gradually return to the lower end of its longer-term goals (3%-5% system sales growth, 6%-7% operating income growth, returns on incremental invested capital in the high teens) based on a wide economic moat rating stemming from a widely recognized brand intangible asset, convenient restaurant locations, a cohesive franchisee system, and significant bargaining and advertising scale. These qualities have kept McDonald's among industry leaders with respect to average unit volumes ($2.5 million per restaurant compared with the QSR industry average just north of $1 million) and operating margins (31.2% in 2013, compared with industry averages in the high teens). Nevertheless, the pace of improvements in the company's priority markets has become a concern and indicates that McDonald's brand equity may be under pressure amid industry promotional activity and fast-casual competition.


VALUATION

Economic Moat   Fair value   Stewardship Rating   McDonald's
Wide   USD 95.00   Exemplary  
Moat Trend   Uncertainty   Sector  
Stable   Medium  

Cyclische consumptiegoederen
- restaurants

 


BULLS

  • By 2015, management believes franchisees can account for 20%-25% of China restaurants compared with 15% in 2013. We believe this will help bring APMEA margins closer to other divisions and supports our longer-term margin forecasts.

  • Despite an influx of new entrants, we believe McDonald's can remain the dominant player in the QSR breakfast category, which accounts for 25% of its U.S. sales but 35%-40% of operating profits.

  • With a dividend yield more than 3%, McDonald's is suitable for income investors looking for more defensive exposure to an expanding global middle class, in our view.


BEARS

  • The global QSR industry (quick service restaurants) is fiercely competitive, marked by a history of price wars. The explosive growth of the fast-casual category could make it more difficult for McDonald's to stand out among a more affluent millennial audience.

  • Food commodity price volatility, labor cost inflation, and foreign currency movements could disrupt McDonald's quarter-to-quarter results.

  • Bankruptcies among quick-service franchisees increase during recessions. High food, energy, and labor costs are a concern, and tighter credit markets could constrain growth among smaller franchisees.

 

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Effecten genoemd in dit artikel

Naam effectPrijsChange (%)Morningstar Rating
Burger King Worldwide Inc  
McDonald's Corp193,87 USD0,22
Starbucks Corp83,24 USD-0,50

Over de auteur

R.J. Hottovy, CFA  R. J. Hottovy, CFA, is a director of equity analysis with Morningstar.

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