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Analyse aandeel 3M

3M is één van de industriële ondernemingen van hoge kwaliteit die de aandelenanalisten van Morningstar volgen. Maar een vertragende industriële productie zal waarschijnlijk de vooruitzichten van de onderneming op korte termijn beperken. (Engelstalig rapport)

Keith Schoonmaker 12 juni, 2014 | 0:24

INVESTMENT THESIS

3M possesses an enviable patent portfolio, enabling a healthy pipeline of new product introductions. Research and development lies at the heart of the company’s competitive advantages, enabling 3M to introduce new products at high margins while competitors struggle to keep up. While 3M operates in a diverse set of end markets and geographies, the company is able to use its scale and distribution channels to achieve lower costs than competitors. Additionally, 3M allows its engineers to dedicate 15% of their time to their individual pursuits, resulting in numerous patents and a storehouse of ideas for use around the company. With so many different technologies at the cusp of development, 3M has a long runway for internally driven growth.

Historically, 3M has been able to achieve organic revenue growth 1%-2% higher than global gross domestic product by continually refreshing its product portfolio, providing a steady source for average selling price increases. Moreover, over the past decade, the company has outearned its cost of capital each year with operating margins north of 20% while also investing organically and inorganically. In short, 3M's self-funding, cash generation machine is one of the best in the diversified industrial peer group.

CEO Inge Thulin is committed to improving the growth and profitability profile of the firm, singling out certain businesses that underperform the organization's high standards. This prudent portfolio pruning is timely and should help the company protect economic profits and growth over time. In our opinion, commercialization remains the biggest opportunity for 3M. Even though the company has a stable of engineers constantly developing new ideas, bringing those ideas to the marketplace in a timely, salable manner is the key to the sustainability of 3M’s competitive advantage over competitors, ultimately flowing to profitability and shareholder returns.


VALUATION

Economic Moat      Fair value   Stewardship Rating   3m
Wide    USD 131.00      Exemplary  
Moat Trend   Uncertainty   Sector  
Stable   Low  

Basismaterialen                     

 

BULLS

  • The company recently announced a plan to return cash to shareholders through accelerated repurchases and dividends, increasing the payout ratio to diversified industrial peers.

  • By increasing spending on research and development, 3M is investing in its moat, improving its product vitality, pricing, and longer-term profitability.

  • 3M's portfolio tilts more toward consumable products, giving the company healthy profitability and less exposure to the volatile corporate capital spending cycle.

 

 

BEARS

  • While 3M's diversity across end markets can be beneficial, it is difficult for the company to grow at a rate different from global GDP.

  • The company may be increasing leverage and cash outflows at the top of a cycle, a decision that may prove painful and limiting if economic growth slows.

  • In order to continue its top-line growth, 3M must successfully integrate many acquisitions and continue innovating marketable products. Neither of these prospects is guaranteed.

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Effecten genoemd in dit artikel

Naam effectPrijsChange (%)Morningstar Rating
3M Co167,91 USD-1,62

Over de auteur

Keith Schoonmaker  Keith Schoonmaker is a senior stock analyst at Morningstar.

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