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Analyse aandeel Priceline.com - Aanbevolen Aandeel

Priceline staat op het punt om in 2014 het grootste online reisbureau ter wereld te worden, terwijl zijn wereldwijde marktaandeel van alle reisboekingen nog minder dan 4 procent is. Vijf jaar geleden was dat nog 1 procent. (Engelstaltig rapport)

Adam Fleck, CFA 07 november, 2014 | 14:36

INVESTMENT THESIS

The Priceline Group is poised to become the world’s largest online travel agent in 2014, yet it still has global market share of all travel bookings of less than 4% (compared with less than 1% five years ago). We expect Priceline to grow significantly faster than Expedia during the next five years, as it has a stronger presence in faster-growing international markets that have lower penetration rates and more boutique hotels, which are more likely to be booked through an online travel agency. Booking.com generates more than 60% of revenue, and our outlook is for this brand to generate over 15% revenue growth the next five years, driven by continued penetration of the European market, a partnership with Ctrip.com for outbound travel from China, an acceleration in revPAR growth in Europe, and Booking.com starting to make inroads in the U.S. Augmenting growth are Priceline’s growing Agoda brand and Kayak, a travel search engine.

Although we expect growth to slow in the near term, we think double-digit gains are sustainable through the end of the decade, and that two important tailwinds will enable over 20% average annual EPS growth over the next 10 years. First, Priceline benefits from a powerful network effect that is becoming stronger over time. As the supply on the company’s websites increases, it increases the attractiveness of booking through Priceline’s websites to customers looking for one-stop shopping for booking travel, which further enhances the attractiveness of Priceline to hotels. Booking.com has more than 535,000 properties in its network and more than 360,000 in Europe alone, more than double Expedia's European exposure, by our estimate. Second, Booking.com uses an agency model, in which hotels are the merchant of record and pay Booking.com a fee, which helps it to capture market share from online travel agents with a merchant model. The agency model is attractive to hotels in that the commission is typically in the low- to midteens, compared with 20%-plus for the merchant model. Priceline’s agency revenue also offers better profitability, and margins are likely to increase significantly in the next several years.

VALUATION

Economic Moat   Fair value   Stewardship Rating   hotel 
Narrow   USD 1.500,00
  Exemplary  
Moat Trend   Uncertainty   Sector  
Positive   High   

Consumer Cyclical - Travel & Leisure

 

BULLS

  • The company is well-positioned for long-term growth because of its strong position in underpenetrated international markets.

  • A strong network effect and an agency pricing model for Booking.com should enable the company to continue to capture global market share.

  • Gross margins are poised to increase substantially because of an expected greater mix of agency revenue.



BEARS

  • Priceline's acquisition of OpenTable was struck at an expensive valuation, in our opinion.

  • Intensifying competition from Expedia, TripAdvisor, and travel search engines could lead to a decline in margins.

  • Priceline's Agoda website, which caters to Asian travelers, has not had much success in China, where Expedia appears to be better positioned to grow with majority-owned subsidiary Elong and a partnership with local Internet giant Tencent.

 

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Effecten genoemd in dit artikel

Naam effectPrijsChange (%)Morningstar Rating
Booking Holdings Inc1.873,45 USD0,01
Expedia Group Inc95,46 USD0,80

Over de auteur

Adam Fleck, CFA  Adam Fleck is an associate director of research with Morningstar.

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