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Analyse aandeel Baxter - Aanbevolen Aandeel

Meer dan twee derde van de omzet van Baxter komt van producten die marktleider zijn en draagt bij aan de wereldwijde concurrentievoordelen van de farmaceut. (rapport Engelstalig)

Karen Andersen, CFA 06 november, 2014 | 11:44

INVESTMENT THESIS

Baxter's biopharmaceutical and medical products business lines will part ways in 2015, but we think this diversified firm's competitive advantages remain strong.

Baxter's BioScience division represents slightly less than half of the firm's sales, but a higher portion of profits. Recombinant factor VIII therapy Advate dominates the U.S. market (Bayer's Kogenate leads in Europe), and the drug's prophylaxis label and conversion of patients previously on plasma-derived products is allowing it to achieve strong growth, particularly among the underpenetrated adult segment. Competition is growing, as Biogen Idec launched long-acting product Eloctate in the U.S. in July 2014, which can support a three- to five-day dosing schedule (Advate can be given every three days), Novo Nordisk could launch a me-too Advate in 2015, and Bayer and Novo could both launch long-acting products in the next few years. However, Advate's strong safety profile and Baxter's pipeline investments will help shield it from these challenges. Baxter has accelerated development of long-acting factor VIII protein BAX855, which had positive data in Phase III and is poised to launch in 2015. In addition, HyQvia, a long-acting version of Baxter's immunoglobulin product Gammagard, is launching in the U.S. and Europe. HyQvia's improved convenience should translate into market share gains and better pricing power.

Baxter's medical products segment should also be a steady performer for the firm. In addition to supplying items such as IV solutions, infusion pumps, injectables, and anesthesia gases to hospitals and their pharmacies, Baxter offers contract manufacturing services to drug firms and is a leading provider of at-home dialysis solutions outside the United States. With the acquisition of Swedish dialysis player Gambro, medical products is likely to remain Baxter's largest overall business. We think Baxter will now achieve critical mass in its renal disease offerings, and recent reimbursement changes in the U.S. and new product offerings on tap through 2015 will accelerate growth. Synergies with Gambro will also prevent low gross margins in the renal market from weighing on the bottom line.


VALUATION

Economic Moat   Fair value   Stewardship Rating  
Wide   USD 84.00   Standard  
Moat Trend   Uncertainty   Sector  
Stable   Low  

Healthcare -Medical Instruments & Equipment


BULLS

  • More than two thirds of Baxter's revenue stems from market-leading products, a tribute to its global competitive advantages with products like Advate and Gammagard.

  • Following the biopharmaceuticals spin-off in 2015, we think this new firm and the new medical-products-focused Baxter will remain diversified and retain significant competitive advantages.

  • Emerging markets are a prime source of growth for many drug firms, and hemophilia demographics point to a large unmet need in countries such as Brazil, Russia, and China.

 

 

BEARS

  • Biogen Idec and Novo Nordisk are taking aim at Baxter's Advate, and a less-frequent dosing schedule may be enough to convince physicians and patients to switch from Baxter's established brand.

  • Baxter shut down its Los Angeles plasma fractionation facility in 2012; while now operational, its near-term capacity does not allow for above-market growth.

  • While Baxter's acquisition of Gambro strengthens the firm's position in the dialysis market, Gambro's historical growth has been flat. Baxter's goal of accelerating organic and Gambro-sourced growth over the next few years could prove lofty.

 

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Effecten genoemd in dit artikel

Naam effectPrijsChange (%)Morningstar Rating
Baxter International Inc82,29 USD0,91

Over de auteur

Karen Andersen, CFA  Karen Andersen, CFA, is a senior stock analyst with Morningstar.

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