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Analyse aandeel Netflix - Aanbevolen Aandeel

Morningstar verwacht dat Netflix verder expandeert buiten de Verenigde Staten. De komende jaren zal de onderneming verlies maken. Maar de technische expertise, de bibliotheek met series en films en het merk van Netflix geven een positieve doorslag. (rapport Engelstalig)

Morningstar Equity Analysts 13 november, 2014 | 11:52

INVESTMENT THESIS

From its origins as a DVD rental by mail service, Netflix has morphed into a pioneer in streaming video on demand and the largest online video provider in the United States. We have raised our economic moat rating to narrow based on intangibles and a network effect resulting from the use of Big Data stemming from the firm’s massive subscriber base in the U.S.

Already the largest provider in the U.S., Netflix is expanding rapidly into markets abroad with the belief that its experience and expertise will help overcome any hurdles. The firm has used its scale to construct a massive data set that tracks every customer interaction. It then leverages this customer data to better purchase content and produce original material such as "House of Cards" and "Orange Is the New Black." We believe that this data and ability to leverage will help Netflix to remain the largest provider in the U.S. and enjoy success in many of the newly entered and potential expansion markets across the globe.

While the company uses data to help with the process of selecting new shows to fund, management does not use the data to interfere with the show runners, an important consideration in the competitive market for content. Successful series such as "House of Cards" and "Orange Is the New Black" have a halo effect with not only audiences but also content creators. Netflix's public hands-off stance coupled with the halo effect from its previous investments creates an attractive environment for creators, similar to the reputations enjoyed by HBO and FX (the top two networks by Emmy nominations in 2014), turning Netflix into a preferred platform for show creators and producers.

We expect that the company will continue its overseas expansion and that the segment will generate losses over the next few years. However, we believe Netflix's technical expertise, content library, and brand will overcome most challengers as has already happened in other markets. Also, while we acknowledge the need to create and acquire country-specific content, we note that American pop culture remains popular across the globe and provides Netflix with a deep library for any market.


VALUATION

Economic Moat   Fair value   Stewardship Rating  
Narrow   USD 386,00   Standard  
Moat Trend   Uncertainty   Sector  
Stable   Very High  

Consumer cyclical - retail - apparel & specialty


BULLS

  • Netflix's internal recommendation software and large subscriber base give the company an edge when deciding which content to acquire in future years.

  • TV Everywhere from traditional pay TV distributors has been slow to roll out and largely replicates the linear experience, gifting Netflix with an extended window to remain the leading provider of Internet television in the U.S.

  • The FCC may implement strict net neutrality rules in the U.S., limiting the ability of broadband providers to charge Netflix for access.

 

BEARS

  • The expansion into international markets is unprofitable today, and any material level of profitability may take five or more years to achieve.

  • Netflix relies on unlimited bandwidth for its online service, and its subscribers use the largest percentage, by far, of all Internet downstream traffic during peak hours. The move toward paid fast lanes by broadband providers could lower margins if the company cannot pass though price increases.

  • Netflix may be overpaying for content due to the presence of Amazon and Hulu. The entry of new competitors may exacerbate the rising cost of content.

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Effecten genoemd in dit artikel

Naam effectPrijsChange (%)Morningstar Rating
Netflix Inc305,16 USD0,85

Over de auteur

Morningstar Equity Analysts  Morningstar stock and fund analysts cover 2,000 mutual funds, 2,100 equities, and 300 exchange-traded funds.

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