Analyse aandeel KBC

KBC is diep geworteld in België en heeft daar een trouwe klantenbasis. Dat helpt om zijn grote depositobasis en hechte relaties in stand te houden (Engelstalig rapport)

Erin Davis 17 september, 2014 | 14:21
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INVESTMENT THESIS

KBC has largely righted itself, more so than most banks nearly toppled by the financial crisis. The bank has sold off multiple businesses, which has boosted its capital ratios, while helping repay most of its EUR 7 billion in government bailouts while increasing its focus on its attractive and profitable Belgium and Czech Republic banking operations. As of mid-year 2014, KBC had just EUR 2.0 billion of state aid left to repay (plus a 50% penalty) by 2020, which we think it can and will do on an accelerated schedule. While we don't expect a quick turnaround at KBC's troubled International Banking division, we think the EUR 671 million of additional impairments the division took in late 2013 set the stage for breakeven results by 2015.

We're fans of KBC's Belgium business, which accounts for more than half of allocated equity and is the biggest source of the bank's narrow economic moat. In Belgium, KBC is one of the top financial services groups with an estimated 20% share in banking and a 35% share in investment products. A key player in Belgium's cozy three-bank oligopoly, KBC Belgium maintained good credit quality and high margins throughout the credit crisis--underlying returns on equity are typically above 20% and sometimes more than 30%. However, Belgium offers very little room for growth above the country's modest GDP growth. For this reason, KBC, like other Belgian banks, has historically sought growth abroad. We're glad KBC is now focusing on its core markets, as it has a history of underestimating losses outside of its home markets.

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Over de auteur

Erin Davis  Erin Davis is a senior stock analyst for Morningstar.

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