Welkom bij Morningstar.nl! Bekijk de veranderingen en ontdek hoe onze nieuwe functionaliteiten u kunnen helpen bij uw beleggingsbeslissingen.

Analyse aandeel KBC

KBC is diep geworteld in België en heeft daar een trouwe klantenbasis. Dat helpt om zijn grote depositobasis en hechte relaties in stand te houden (Engelstalig rapport)

Erin Davis 17 september, 2014 | 14:21

INVESTMENT THESIS

KBC has largely righted itself, more so than most banks nearly toppled by the financial crisis. The bank has sold off multiple businesses, which has boosted its capital ratios, while helping repay most of its EUR 7 billion in government bailouts while increasing its focus on its attractive and profitable Belgium and Czech Republic banking operations. As of mid-year 2014, KBC had just EUR 2.0 billion of state aid left to repay (plus a 50% penalty) by 2020, which we think it can and will do on an accelerated schedule. While we don't expect a quick turnaround at KBC's troubled International Banking division, we think the EUR 671 million of additional impairments the division took in late 2013 set the stage for breakeven results by 2015.

We're fans of KBC's Belgium business, which accounts for more than half of allocated equity and is the biggest source of the bank's narrow economic moat. In Belgium, KBC is one of the top financial services groups with an estimated 20% share in banking and a 35% share in investment products. A key player in Belgium's cozy three-bank oligopoly, KBC Belgium maintained good credit quality and high margins throughout the credit crisis--underlying returns on equity are typically above 20% and sometimes more than 30%. However, Belgium offers very little room for growth above the country's modest GDP growth. For this reason, KBC, like other Belgian banks, has historically sought growth abroad. We're glad KBC is now focusing on its core markets, as it has a history of underestimating losses outside of its home markets.

More than many European banks, KBC has taken aggressive action to de-risk and shed its non-core assets. It has reduced its risk-weighted assets by 40% since 2008, and has completed nearly all of its planned divestitures. However, risks to investors remain--KBC has EUR 15 billion of lending in Ireland, where a reversal of positive trends in 2014 could cause heavy losses. Yet, we're increasingly confident that KBC has put its troubles in the rear-view mirror, and anticipate that the bank will have excess capital available to fund a sizable dividend in 2014. We note, however, that it plans no dividend in 2015.

 

VALUATION

Economic Moat   Fair value   Stewardship Rating   Banks
None   EUR 45,00    Standard  
Moat Trend   Uncertainty   Sector  
Stable   High  

Financiële dienstverlening - banken


BULLS

  • KBC's deep roots and loyal customer base in Belgium help sustain its large deposit base and sticky relationships.

  • KBC has a sizable market share in Eastern Europe's strongest markets and may benefit from strong growth as their economies recover.

  • KBC's long-term shareholder base should allow the bank to focus on a true revitalization rather than short-term profits.

 



BEARS

  • KBC holds about EUR 15 billion of Irish loans (one fourth of which are nonperforming), including EUR 7 billion of underwater mortgages, compared with the bank's EUR 12 billion of common equity.

  • KBC's profits during the boom years were bolstered by excessively risky activities. Without these fat revenue streams, KBC's earnings power will be less impressive.

  • KBC has proven to be a weak underwriter outside of its native Belgium. While KBC has shed many of its non-core businesses, there's little reason to believe it won't make the same mistake again.

 


___________________________________________________________


Overzicht aandelenanalyses >


Aanbevolen Aandelen >


20 Tips voor het beleggen in aandelen >



Meer weten over de methodologie achter Morningstar's beoordeling en waardering van ondernemingen en aandelen?
Hoe Morningstar aandelen onderzoekt en waardeert

Morningstar's sterrenrating voor aandelen

Vragen en antwoorden bij Morningstar's aandelenonderzoek


Het uitgebreide researchrapport van dit aandeel is beschikbaar voor institutionele beleggers, vermogensbeheerders en private bankers. Voor meer informatie over de ruim 1500 wereldwijde aandelen- en creditresearchrapporten kunt u contact opnemen met Morningstar via equitysales@morningstar.com.

Denkt u alles te weten over beleggen? Klik hier om dat te bewijzen met de Morningstar Investing Mastermind Quiz.

Effecten genoemd in dit artikel

Naam effectPrijsChange (%)Morningstar Rating
Banco Santander (Brasil) SA ADR10,74 USD-0,37
Bank of America Corporation33,67 USD1,75
HSBC Holdings PLC561,90 GBX1,74
ING Groep NV10,43 EUR1,07
JPMorgan Chase & Co135,04 USD1,49
KBC Group SA/NV66,34 EUR0,33
Wells Fargo & Co54,37 USD2,14

Over de auteur

Erin Davis  Erin Davis is a senior stock analyst for Morningstar.

Bevestiging bezoeker


Onze website maakt gebruik van cookies en andere technologieën om een op u afgestemde ervaring te kunnen leveren, en te begrijpen hoe u en andere bezoekers onze website gebruiken. Zie 'cookie opties' voor verdere details.

  • Andere Morningstar websites
© Copyright 2018 Morningstar, Inc. Alle rechten voorbehouden.      Gebruiksvoorwaardenen      Privacybeleid.    Cookie toestemming