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Analyse aandeel Qualcomm - Aanbevolen Aandeel

Qualcomm krijgt licentie-inkomsten van vrijwel alle verkochte mobiele telefoons voor het 3G- en 4G-netwerk, omdat het patenten voor vrijwel alle belangrijke onderdelen voor deze netwerken bezit. (rapport Engelstalig)

Brian Colello, CPA 06 november, 2014 | 10:26

INVESTMENT THESIS

Qualcomm is the innovator of CDMA network technology, the backbone of all 3G networks, and we view its CDMA intellectual property portfolio as the source of its wide economic moat. Essentially, phones are unable to connect to 3G networks without paying a royalty (about 3%-5% of the price of the handset) to the company. As more 3G-capable smartphones hit the market and carriers expand their 3G networks, we think Qualcomm is poised for strong licensing revenue growth over the next few years. Qualcomm doesn't have the same dominant IP portfolio in 4G technologies like LTE, but it has generated enough essential patents to enable it to strike new deals with many large handset makers. More important, for at least the next decade, the overwhelming majority of 4G handsets will probably be backward-compatible with 3G technologies, enabling Qualcomm to collect higher 3G royalty rates.

We view Qualcomm's chip segment as less moaty, but still a strong business. We anticipate solid revenue growth as the smartphone market expands, allowing Qualcomm to sell more advanced processors and additional chip content into these high-end devices. Qualcomm is present in most high-end smartphones today, securing the sole baseband chip supplier position in Apple's iPhones and iPads, while selling integrated Snapdragon processors into Samsung's 4G-capable Galaxy phones, other high-end Android models, and all Windows Phones. We model relatively stable market share from Qualcomm's chip business. Intel looms as a major threat in processors, and we see some risk that Samsung vertically integrates even further, leaving fewer opportunities for Qualcomm and others to sell mobile processors to the handset titan. However, we also think Qualcomm's strong relationships with handset vendors, experience in 4G LTE baseband chips (where the firm has a two-year time-to-market lead) and ability to integrate both the application processor and baseband functions into a single Snapdragon chip should help the firm fend off a host of competitors in the years ahead. We think the threats of Intel and Samsung pose greater risk to lesser players in the mobile space.


VALUATION

Economic Moat   Fair value   Stewardship Rating  
Wide   USD 80,00   Standard  
Moat Trend   Uncertainty   Sector  
Stable   Medium  

Technology - communication equipment



BULLS

  • Qualcomm collects royalty income on the substantial majority of 3G and 4G handsets sold, as it holds virtually all essential patents used in these networks.

  • Qualcomm is the clear market leader in wireless chips, with a dominant share in 4G LTE chipsets and design wins into virtually every premium handset on the market today.

  • Qualcomm's Snapdragon chips, which include both the processor needed to run a phone's operating system and baseband functionality needed to connect the phone to wireless networks, have unmatched integration today.

 

 

 

BEARS

  • China's investigation into Qualcomm's licensing business and the firm's difficulties in collecting royalty revenue from Chinese handset makers adds uncertainty and risk to what is otherwise a steadily growing business.

  • Although most 4G phones will probably be backward-compatible with 3G networks for years to come, a small portion of phones may emerge as 4G-only and Qualcomm may earn lower royalty income on the sale of such devices.

  • Qualcomm's licensing revenue has suffered from time to time due to currency effects, price competition, and an unfavorable handset product mix.

 

 

 

 

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Effecten genoemd in dit artikel

Naam effectPrijsChange (%)Morningstar Rating
Qualcomm Inc85,05 USD-0,67

Over de auteur

Brian Colello, CPA  Brian Colello, CPA is a senior stock analyst with Morningstar.

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