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Analyse aandeel Anheuser-Busch InBev

De wereldwijde schaalgrootte en distributie van Anheuser-Busch InBev is indrukwekkend. Het is 's werelds grootste bierbrouwer met 17 merken die elk per jaar USD 1 miljard omzet genereren. (Engelstalig rapport)

Philip Gorham 03 november, 2014 | 15:48

INVESTMENT THESIS

Anheuser-Busch InBev has one of the widest moats and is among the most efficient operators in our consumer defensive coverage universe. Vast global scale and near-monopoly dominance in several Latin American markets give AB InBev a significant cost advantage, even over other brewing giants such as SABMiller. This plays out in the firm's excess returns on invested capital and best-in-class profitability. AB InBev generates mid-30s EBIT margins, well above the next profitable firm, SABMiller with high 20s margins. Driving AB InBev's profitability is its majority stake in Ambev, the Latin American brewer that generates a whopping 50% EBIT margin in beer in Brazil.

AB InBev leads the industry in its operational performance as well as financial performance. It boasts best-in-class operating and cash cycles, asset turnover ratios, and working capital management. It delays payments to trade creditors 17% longer than its closest rival SABMiller, and it converts around 30% of its revenue to free cash flow, more than 3 times that of the number-two player.

Highly effective management is at the core of AB InBev's success. The firm has been acquisitive, including transformative deals for Interbrew and Anheuser-Busch and more recently acquiring Grupo Modelo and Oriental Brewery. Management's playbook is to buy brands with a promising growth platform, expand distribution, and ruthlessly squeeze costs from the business. We think the acquisition of Modelo perfectly demonstrates the strategy. Corona is a premium brand, so it plays well in an environment of premiumization in beer consumption. AB InBev can enhance profitability by removing duplicate costs, expanding volume (it has tripled Budweiser's volume in China in less than three years and has doubled its share in the United Kingdom), and bringing distribution in-house, thereby capturing the downstream margin opportunity. With the brewing industry far from finished with consolidation (even AB InBev commands only around 20% of the global beer industry) and EUR 10 billion in cash on the balance sheet, management should continue to create value from this strategy for many years to come.


VALUATION

Economic Moat   Fair value   Stewardship Rating   AB Inbev
Wide   EUR 89.00   Exemplary  
Moat Trend   Uncertainty   Sector  
Stable   Medium  

def. consum. goed. - alcoholische dranken

 

BULLS

  • AB InBev's worldwide scale and distribution is massive. It is the leading global brewer with 17 brands that generate more than $1 billion per year in sales.

  • AB InBev has a 62% economic stake in Ambev, which has dominant share in several key markets, including Brazil (63%), Argentina (77%), and Canada (41%). Additionally, AB InBev has leading share in the United States (48%), Belgium (57%), and Ukraine (36%).

  • The company has been an efficient acquirer of brands. Its recent quest to acquire the remainder of Modelo should result in more than $1 billion of annual cost synergies.



BEARS

  • The company's flagship Budweiser brand is facing meaningful headwinds in the United States from craft brewers, spirits companies, and persistently high levels of unemployment.

  • There are still large holes in AB InBev's geographic footprint. The company has no meaningful presence in Africa, a huge growth opportunity.

  • With its 62% economic interest in AmBev, AB InBev is heavily leveraged to Latin America. Economic weakness in Brazil would be detrimental to InBev's financial results.

 


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Effecten genoemd in dit artikel

Naam effectPrijsChange (%)Morningstar Rating
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV71,20 EUR0,14
Heineken NV91,46 EUR0,51

Over de auteur

Philip Gorham  

Bevestiging bezoeker


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