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Analyse aandeel KPN

De verkoop van E-Plus maakt KPN financieel gezonder, maar maakt de onderneming kleiner en meer afhankelijk van de Nederlandse markt. Daar worstelt KPN om te kunnen groeien. (Engelstalig rapport)

Allan C. Nichols, CFA 02 oktober, 2014 | 8:59

INVESTMENT THESIS

KPN is the incumbent telecom operator in the Netherlands, where it's struggling to grow. However, it is having some success in new ventures, particularly its television service. Importantly, the firm just sold its E-Plus division in Germany to Telefonica for EUR 5 billion ($6.3 billion) in cash plus 20.5% of the combined firm, which significantly strengthens its balance sheet. However, this shrinks the firm and makes it all the more dependent on the Netherlands.

Increased competition and changes in customer behavior have pressured KPN's sales in its home country. Its consumer fixed-line business has been shrinking rapidly for years, as cable competition has been particularly strong in the Netherlands. However, the firm is having some success bundling television services with its phone business. This has worked especially well in areas where the cable firms still only have analog service. Providing the Spotify music service free to premium customers has also been a successful marketing tool. KPN now has about 26% of the digital pay television market in the Netherlands. It is also rolling out fiber to increase broadband speeds to help it compete. The wireless business has struggled as the firm has steadily lost prepaid subscribers since peaking in the first quarter of 2009. KPN has intentionally focused on higher-end subscribers at the expense of market share. This has spawned an increase in data usage, which has helped offset declines in voice pricing. However, the company was slow to offer bundles of voice, text, and data. Customers are increasingly communicating via alternatives to texting, such as WhatsApp, instant messaging and Facebook, which has also hurt revenue. While management projects the Dutch business will have stabilized by the end of 2014, we are more skeptical.

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Effecten genoemd in dit artikel

Naam effectPrijsChange (%)Morningstar Rating
Deutsche Telekom AG16,50 EUR-0,76
Koninklijke KPN NV2,53 EUR-0,47
NTT DOCOMO Inc ADR28,12 USD0,59
Orange SA13,44 EUR-0,04
Proximus SA24,58 EUR-6,04
Telefonica SA6,11 EUR0,00
Vivendi SA25,14 EUR0,88

Over de auteur

Allan C. Nichols, CFA  Allan C. Nichols, CFA, is a senior stock analyst and international investing specialist with Morningstar.

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