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Analyse aandeel General Motors - Aanbevolen Aandeel

Het break-even punt van GM ligt in Noord-Amerika op 10,5-11,0 miljoen verkochte auto's en dat is heel wat minder dan bij het oude GM. De inkomsten van de autofabrikant zouden snel moeten toenemen als de Amerikaanse autoverkoop zich herstelt van het dieptepunt in 2009. (Engelstalig rapport)

David Whiston, CFA, CPA, CFE 22 september, 2014 | 14:24
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INVESTMENT THESIS

We think General Motors' car models are of the best quality and design in decades. The company is already a leader in truck models, so a competitive lineup in all segments, combined with a much smaller cost base, leads us to think that GM will be printing money as vehicle demand recovers.

We think GM's earnings potential is excellent because it finally has a healthy North American unit and can focus its U.S. marketing efforts on just four brands instead of eight. The most critical cost-saving measure was setting up a voluntary employees' beneficiary association for the retiree health-care costs of the United Auto Workers. This saves GM about $3 billion a year; other benefit concessions and plant closings have drastically lowered GM North America's break-even point to U.S. industry sales of about 10.5 million vehicles, assuming 18%-19% share. The actual point varies based on mix and incentive levels. We think the normative demand for U.S. light vehicles is about 16.2 million-18.3 million units, so we expect GM to report excellent earnings growth as vehicle demand comes back during the next few years. We expect further scale to come from GM moving its production to 96% on global platforms by 2018 from just 39% in 2010 and from GM being in one of its largest new product rollouts ever.

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Effecten genoemd in dit artikel

Naam effectPrijsChange (%)Morningstar Rating
Ford Motor Co13,95 USD-3,06Rating
General Motors Co56,84 USD-0,77Rating
Stellantis NV16,19 EUR-1,00Rating

Over de auteur

David Whiston, CFA, CPA, CFE  David Whiston is a senior analyst with Morningstar.

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